August 20, 2025
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Media Contact: Maria Sipin, Chief of Staff
maria.sipin2@portlandoregon.gov
New Report from Councilor Green’s Office Debunks “Tax Flight” Myth, Exposes Coordinated Attack on Voter-Approved Preschool for All
PORTLAND, OR — A new report from the office of Portland City Councilor Mitch Green definitively refutes the central argument used by opponents of the popular Preschool for All (PFA) program, revealing that claims of high-income earners fleeing Multnomah County due to taxes are based on a fundamental misreading of data.
The report, titled “The Illusion of Preschool Tax Flight,” was authored by Erik Dean, PhD, faculty department chair of economics at Portland Community College and senior policy analyst for Councilor Green. Published on August 14th, it arrived exactly one week ahead of a key Multnomah County Board of Commissioners vote on a proposal to index the PFA income tax to inflation—a move critics argue is the first step toward dismantling the voter-approved program.
The findings directly challenge the narrative advanced by Governor Tina Kotek’s Portland Central City Task Force tax advisory group, which recently recommended major overhauls of the PFA tax, the Portland Clean Energy Fund (PCEF) tax, and the Supportive Housing Services (SHS) tax, along with proposals aimed at preempting the City from adopting future taxes. These recommendations rely on the same debunked “tax flight” theory to justify handing further tax breaks to the wealthiest households, on top of the historic federal tax cuts recently passed by the Trump administration.
“The 1% wants to see Preschool for All dismantled because it’s funded with a modest progressive tax, because it benefits working families first and foremost, and because it demonstrates that the public sector can do big things if we try,” said Councilor Green. “But they can’t say that. Instead, they have to tell us a story about a crisis that will immiserate us all unless we kill Preschool for All.”
Key findings from the report include:
- The data shows income gains, not flight: The reported increase in average income of those leaving the county during the pandemic is better explained by massive, nationwide windfall gains from capital gains, interest, and dividends—not an exodus driven by local taxes. This pattern could be seen in major cities across the country, regardless of their tax rates.
- No mass exodus of high-income households: The number of households in Multnomah County with incomes over $200,000 has grown by 28.7% from 2021 to 2023. The total number of filers paying the PFA tax increased by 16.5% in the same period.
- A flawed use of averages: Opponents’ arguments depend on a “statistical sleight of hand” using mean averages, which are easily skewed by a small number of very high-income individuals. This method is inappropriate for analyzing migration trends.
The report concludes that the 2021 data anomaly—the cornerstone of the opposition's argument—was a national phenomenon linked to pandemic-era financial boons for asset owners and a trend of mobility among those who could work remotely, not a reaction to the PFA tax.
“Preschool for all lifts families out of poverty, reduces disparities, boosts graduation rates, and makes Portland a place where young families can actually build a life,” Green stated. “The opposition talks about a ‘doom loop.’ But the real doom loop starts when we let them use fear and manipulated data to dismantle the programs that lift us out of crisis; when we abandon our democratic mandates; when we sacrifice our children's future to protect the windfall gains of the pandemic's winners.”
In light of these findings, Councilor Green and several of his City Council colleagues have submitted a joint letter to the Multnomah County Board of Commissioners urging a “no” vote on indexing the PFA tax and strongly opposing any future efforts to means-test the program. They argue that succumbing to a manufactured crisis would undermine the will of the voters who passed PFA with 64% support and jeopardize a critical lifeline for Portland families.
Access the full report
Dean, Erik. 2025. The Illusion of Preschool Tax Flight. Portland, OR: Office of Councilor Mitch Green. https://www.portland.gov/council/districts/4/mitch-green/documents/illusion-preschool-tax-flight/download
View a copy of the joint letter from Portland City Councilors to the County Commission
https://www.portland.gov/council/districts/4/mitch-green/documents/joint-letter-portland-city-councilors-multnomah-county/download
Read the Governor’s Tax Advisory Group recommendations
https://cdn.orbusinesscouncil.org/docs/policy/TAG_Ex_Summary_FNL.pdf
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