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About the 2045 Housing Needs Analysis and Housing Production Strategy

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Statewide Planning Goal 10 requires cities to inventory “buildable lands” and ensure there is enough zoned land to accommodate their housing needs over the next 20 years. Portland is currently updating the mandated Housing Needs Analysis and accompanying Housing Production Strategy for this purpose.
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Overview

Oregon cities are required to update their Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) every six years. In December 2023, the City of Portland adopted the 2045 Housing Needs Analysis, which determined that the City should plan for approximately 120,000 more housing units by 2045. The Housing Needs Analysis evaluates the current population and existing housing conditions, forecasts housing needs for the next 20 years, and inventories buildable lands or development capacity to accommodate that future growth.

The Housing Production Strategy (HPS) is a set of actions the City will take over the next five years to support the development of those 120,000 units of needed housing. The HPS evaluates current housing policies and programs to identify additional actions the City can take to meet that need. It will include strategies to support the construction of needed housing as well as ways to measure and report on housing development.

Purpose of the HNA and HPS

The HNA identified the housing needed to accommodate future population growth and identifies if there is enough zoned land for housing. The HPS identifies housing production strategies that support the development of needed housing. In addition to supporting housing production, the HNA and HPS can highlight community priorities and help craft stabilization strategies to keep vulnerable communities in their homes.

Graphic showing elements of Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Production Strategy

The Housing Needs Analysis evaluates the current population and existing housing conditions, forecasts housing needs for the next 20 years, and inventories buildable lands or development capacity to accommodate that future growth. View an accessible PDF of this graphic in the file linked below.

About the HPS

The HPS includes zoning code and map changes, regulatory reforms, financial incentives, funding, land acquisition and preservation, and partnerships that address the housing production needs of the next five years. These actions must consider impacts on low-income households, communities of color, people with disabilities, and other state and federally protected classes.

Read the draft Housing Production Strategy

Comment on the draft Housing Production Strategy via the Map App (by April 1, 2024)

Why is this important?

While a place to live is a basic human need, not all Portlanders have safe and healthy housing. Ensuring a fair and equitable housing market is essential to providing the opportunities and security people need to live healthy and successful lives. However, economic, social, and physical barriers limit many Portlanders’ access to adequate housing. In recent years, rising costs and declining incomes have strained household budgets for all but the most well off. Greater housing and transportation costs mean that the cost burden is felt not just by low-income households, but also by moderate- and middle-income households.

About the HNA

The HNA analyzed the status of Portland’s housing supply and affordability as well as the City's ability to meet projected housing demand until 2045. The analysis is organized into five areas:

  1. Community Profile (existing conditions)
  2. Housing Inventory and Production (existing conditions)
  3. Housing Forecast (future demand)
  4. Residential Buildable Lands Inventory (supply)
  5. Housing Capacity Analysis (sufficiency)

The City’s first HNA was adopted as part of the 2035 Comprehensive Plan. As required by the state, the most recent HNA updated in 2023 demonstrates how the City can accommodate the expected household growth by 2045.

This work complements ongoing efforts at the City to provide a comprehensive look at the housing market and our future housing needs. Other efforts include the Portland Housing Bureau’s Annual State of Housing report.

People’s housing needs change throughout their lives, and income, household composition, age, opportunity, and the type of housing needed throughout one’s life may vary greatly. So, Portland will need to plan for and develop a wide range of housing to address the following trends:

  • Portland is becoming a wealthier city overall, with 39% of households making $100,000+.
  • The 2023 median income for a family of four in the Portland Metro is $114,500.
  • 44% of households are lower income (<80% AMI) households.
  • 31% of households are people of color.
  • 13% are elders (65+).
  • 22% are households with a person with a disability.
  • 23% are households with children.
  • 53% are homeowners.
  • 70% are households with one or two people.
  • 36% are cost burdened.
  • 31% are lower income and cost burdened.

How much growth is Portland planning for?

Portland is planning for 120,560 dwelling units by 2045. This housing forecast is based on Metro’s 2019 regional forecast, plus adjustments for vacancy rates, vacation homes, historic underproduction and housing for the houseless population.

In addition, the City should “catch up” the units from underproduction and for households experiencing houselessness and build 55,000 units by 2032, roughly, 6,000 units per year. The City must plan to accommodate Portlanders, including low-income populations, communities of color, and people of all ages and abilities, with a diverse range of needs in terms of location, unit types and prices.

A graphic highlighting the forecasted growth in Portland households and new units by the year 2045

Portland’s future housing need is not evenly distributed among the population in the city. “Priority populations” are those facing historic and ongoing disadvantages, especially those impacted by limited housing choice and access.

How much development capacity does Portland have?

The Buildable Land Inventory (BLI) is an assessment of the development capacity in Portland under current planning and zoning designations. The BLI considers vacant land, redevelopment feasibility, and constraints on development to estimate future development capacity. The BLI estimates that Portland has capacity for 236,977 new housing units, with 90% of those in mixed-use and multi-dwelling zones.

While the City wants to provide residents with easy, walkable, bikeable access to services and resources in “complete neighborhoods,” when development increases so does pressure on lower income neighborhoods. Residents in these neighborhoods are vulnerable to displacement from their homes with the influx of newer, more expensive homes.

Complete Neighborhoods. Complete neighborhoods are places where people of all ages and abilities have safe and convenient access to the goods and services needed in daily life. These places where they can get to grocery stores, schools, libraries, and parks. About 64% of the total housing unit capacity is in ”complete neighborhoods.” The Portland Plan goal is that by 2035, 80% of Portlanders live in a healthy complete neighborhood, with safe and convenient access to the goods and services needed in daily life.

Economic Vulnerability. Displacement occurs when people or businesses are forced to move from a neighborhood because they can no longer afford it. Portland’s most vulnerable neighborhoods are those with the highest concentrations of lower income households, cost-burdened households that spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing; and people of color. Forty-two percent of the capacity is in areas of high economic vulnerability risk. These areas are in Central City, East and Northeast Portland.

Read the adopted 2045 HNA

Visit the project homepage for more information.

Contact

Tom Armstrong

Supervising Planner, Planning and Sustainability

Ariel Kane

City Planner II, Planning and Sustainability

Past Events

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