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Most City of Portland offices will be closed Monday, July 4, to observe Independence Day.

About the EOA Update

Information
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Project purpose, economic vision, why the EOA is being updated now, project steps, and contact information.

Project purpose

The purpose of the Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) is to analyze and forecast growth in Portland’s industrial and other business districts, then designate an adequate 20-year supply of developable land for business and job growth. The EOA update will align 2040 growth expectations with current market trends and community choices.

Economic vision

The Portland Plan and 2035 Comprehensive Plan set three policy directions for economic prosperity:

  1. A diverse and growing city economy
  2. Competitive traded sectors
  3. Equitable household prosperity

The EOA update will build on this economic vision to improve racial equity and inclusive prosperity, climate resiliency and environmental health.

Why is the EOA being updated now?

Several issues must be considered to meet our goals of job growth, environmental health and equitable access to resources, including:

  • Address the shrinking supply of industrial land. Portland experienced extensive growth in last business cycle (2008-2019), adding more than 71,000 new jobs. The Comprehensive Plan and previous plans designated ample capacity for residential and commercial growth well beyond 2040; however, the land supply for industrial growth is tighter.
  • Promote inclusive prosperity and reduce BIPOC income disparities. Industrial and office jobs increase BIPOC incomes more than other job types. Specifically, regional job growth in the industrial sectors (production and distribution) raises BIPOC income by about 20% overall and Black incomes by 25%, relative to all other sectors in 2018. Office jobs raise BIPOC incomes by 16%.
  • Reconcile other important land use decisions involving natural resource protections along the Columbia Slough and Harbor lands.
  • Update important business cycle trends and growth forecasts to inform decisions related toequity, economic diversity, traded sector growth, and recession recovery considerations.

These factors must be balanced in order to meet our goals of job growth, environmental health and equitable access to resources. To address these tradeoffs, this EOA update will consider alternative scenarios for industrial growth capacity and seek integrated approaches to support economic prosperity and equity, environmental health, and other City policies.

Project steps

As prescribed in Oregon’s Planning Goal 9 for preparing EOAs, the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability will publish the following reports, which will be available for public and technical review:

  1. 7-county jobs by sector: 24% (288k) retail; 25% (309k) industrial; 21% (253k) institutional; 30% (365k) office
    Portland has a relatively balanced mix of jobs among four land-use sector types: office, industrial, institutional, and consumer-service sectors. These sectors, each generating roughly a quarter of total jobs, reflects Portland’s economic and employment land diversity.
    Trends, Opportunities and Market Factors (Spring 2022)

This report details economic growth trends, Portland’s local specializations and competitiveness, prosperity trends, as well as marine industrial forecasts, trends and land needs.

  1. Supply and Demand Analysis (Summer 2022)

This report will:

  • Forecast land demand
  • Update the Buildable Land Inventory (BLI)
  • Identify capacity surpluses and shortfalls to meet 2030 and 2040 forecasts.  Review options to meet shortfalls and support recession recovery.
  • Reconcile supply and demand in an update to the 2016 Comprehensive Plan table.
2016 Adopted Employment Land Development Capacity Summary that will be updated through this process.
GeographyAdded jobs (2010-2035 demand)Land (2010-2035 demand)Land (Supply)Surplus (Reconciliation)Supply/demand (Reconciliation)
Central City44,470150 acres390 acres240 acres260%
Industrial31,6301,685 acres1,796 acres111 acres107%
Neighborhood commercial36,140690 acres1,489 acres799 acres216%
Institutions22,730370 acres522 acres152 acres141%
Total141,6402,895 acres4,197 acres
  1. Capacity scenarios and community choices (Fall 2022)

This report will:

  • Analyze industrial capacity strategies and scenarios.
  • Present an opportunity cost analysis and preferred scenarios.
  • Propose changes that would update comprehensive plan policies and capacity strategies.

The Trends, Opportunities and Analysis Report, Supply and Demand Analysis, and the Capacity Scenarios and Community Choices documents make up the Economic Opportunities Analysis. These three documents will be bundled together for community review, discussion and feedback through the legislative process.

Flowchart showing steps in project legislative process
The EOA project will be in the Discussion Draft phase in Summer-Fall 2022, Proposed Draft phase Fall-Winter 2022, PSC recommendation phase with public testimony in Winter-Spring 2023, and City Council phase with public testimony in Spring-Summer 2023.

Visit the project homepage for more information.