Project purpose
As new companies move to Portland and existing businesses expand, the need for employment land in the city will grow. To ensure there is enough land in Portland to accommodate expected employment and industry growth, the City is conducting a study called an Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA). The EOA analyzes and forecasts growth in Portland’s industrial and other business districts, then designates an adequate 20-year supply of developable land for business and job growth. The City of Portland is updating the existing EOA, adopted in 2016, to align 2045 growth expectations with current market trends and community choices.
Economic vision
The Portland Plan and 2035 Comprehensive Plan set three policy directions for economic prosperity:
- A diverse and growing city economy,
- Competitive traded sectors, and
- Equitable household prosperity.
The EOA update builds on this economic vision to improve racial equity and inclusive prosperity, climate resiliency and environmental health.
Several issues must be addressed to meet our goals of job growth, environmental health, and equitable access to resources, including:
- Address the shrinking supply of industrial land. Portland experienced extensive growth in the last business cycle (2008-19), adding more than 71,000 new jobs. The Comprehensive Plan has ample capacity for residential and commercial growth well beyond 2045; however, the land supply for industrial growth is tighter.
- Promote inclusive prosperity and reduce BIPOC income disparities. Industrial and office jobs increase BIPOC incomes more than other job types. Specifically, jobs in the industrial sectors (production and distribution) raise BIPOC income by about 20% overall and Black incomes by 25%, relative to other sectors. Office jobs raise BIPOC incomes by 16%.
- Reconcile economic goals with other important land use decisions involving natural resource protections along the Columbia Slough and Portland Harbor.
- Track business cycle trends and growth forecasts to inform decisions related to equity, economic diversity, traded-sector growth, and recession recovery.
These factors must be balanced to meet our goals. This EOA update will consider alternative scenarios for industrial growth capacity and seek integrated approaches to support economic prosperity and equity, environmental health, and other City policies.
Project timeline
As prescribed in Oregon’s Statewide Planning Goal 9 for preparing EOAs, the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability will publish the following reports: the Trends, Opportunities and Analysis Report; the Supply and Demand Analysis; and the Capacity Scenarios and Community Choices document. BPS will bundle these three documents together for the EOA by first preparing a discussion draft for community review, discussion and feedback, followed by a proposed draft that will be taken to Planning Commission and City Council in mid-2024.
This report details economic growth trends, Portland’s local specializations and competitiveness, prosperity trends, as well as marine industrial forecasts, trends and land needs.
This report includes information about the following topics:
- Employment forecast and land demand analysis
- Buildable Land Inventory (BLI)
- Land demand and supply reconciliation
- Short-term land demand and site-size analysis
- Capacity scenarios and community choices (Winter 2023 to Spring 2024)
This report will analyze industrial capacity strategies and scenarios, present an opportunity cost analysis and preferred scenarios, and propose changes that would update comprehensive plan policies and capacity strategies.
Collaborative Working Group (CWG)
Donnie Oliveira, BPS Director, has appointed 13 stakeholders to the CWG to act as a sounding board for the bureau to review preliminary drafts of the EOA update, including a series of land use scenarios or policy choices, that will set our employment growth expectations for the next 20+ years.
The CWG is not a decision-making body but represents experts in their respective fields and/or have lived experience to offer guidance to the bureau on potential policy changes.