The purpose of the Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) is to analyze and forecast growth in Portland’s industrial and other business districts, then designate an adequate 20-year supply of developable land for business and job growth. The EOA update will align 2040 growth expectations with current market trends and community choices.
The Portland Plan and 2035 Comprehensive Plan set three policy directions for economic prosperity:
- A diverse and growing city economy
- Competitive traded sectors
- Equitable household prosperity
The EOA update will build on this economic vision to improve racial equity and inclusive prosperity, climate resiliency and environmental health.
Why is the EOA being updated now?
Several issues must be addressed to meet our goals of job growth, environmental health and equitable access to resources, including:
- Address the shrinking supply of industrial land. Portland experienced extensive growth in the last business cycle (2008-19), adding more than 71,000 new jobs. The Comprehensive Plan has ample capacity for residential and commercial growth well beyond 2045; however, the land supply for industrial growth is tighter.
- Promote inclusive prosperity and reduce BIPOC income disparities. Industrial and office jobs increase BIPOC incomes more than other job types. Specifically, jobs in the industrial sectors (production and distribution) raise BIPOC income by about 20% overall and Black incomes by 25%, relative to other sectors. Office jobs raise BIPOC incomes by 16%.
- Reconcile economic goals with other important land use decisions involving natural resource protections along the Columbia Slough and Portland Harbor.
- Track business cycle trends and growth forecasts to inform decisions related toequity, economic diversity, traded-sector growth, and recession recovery.
These factors must be balanced in order to meet our goals of job growth, environmental health and equity. To address these tradeoffs, this EOA update will consider alternative scenarios for industrial growth capacity and seek integrated approaches to support economic prosperity and equity, environmental health, and other City policies.
As prescribed in Oregon’s Planning Goal 9 for preparing EOAs, the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability will publish the following reports, which will be available for public review:
- Trends, Opportunities and Market Factors (Spring 2022)
This report details economic growth trends, Portland’s local specializations and competitiveness, prosperity trends, as well as marine industrial forecasts, trends and land needs.
- Supply and Demand Analysis (Fall 2023)
This report will:
- Forecast land demand
- Update the Buildable Land Inventory (BLI)
- Identify capacity surpluses and shortfalls to meet the 2045 forecasts. Review options to meet shortfalls and support recession recovery.
- Reconcile supply and demand in an update to the 2016 Comprehensive Plan table.
|Geography||Added jobs (2010-2035 demand)||Land (2010-2035 demand)||Land (Supply)||Surplus (Reconciliation)||Supply/demand (Reconciliation)|
|Central City||44,470||150 acres||390 acres||240 acres||260%|
|Industrial||31,630||1,685 acres||1,796 acres||111 acres||107%|
|Neighborhood commercial||36,140||690 acres||1,489 acres||799 acres||216%|
|Institutions||22,730||370 acres||522 acres||152 acres||141%|
|Total||141,640||2,895 acres||4,197 acres|
- Capacity scenarios and community choices (Fall 2023)
This report will:
- Analyze industrial capacity strategies and scenarios.
- Present an opportunity cost analysis and preferred scenarios.
- Propose changes that would update comprehensive plan policies and capacity strategies.
The Trends, Opportunities and Analysis Report, Supply and Demand Analysis, and the Capacity Scenarios and Community Choices documents make up the Economic Opportunities Analysis. These three documents will be bundled together for community review, discussion and feedback through the legislative process.
Visit the project homepage for more information.